“You have to be extra careful”

Trade war with China, a Brexit, without the agreement, presidential elections in the UNITED states and, not least, a coronapandemi, which put the world’s economies in the stand.

2020 was a turbulent year with several risk factors for the stock markets, which still ended up with the large increases and the records in the index.

And the ascent looks set to continue into the new year, where both Danish, european and international stocks to go one way – upwards. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones closed the year 2020, with increases of 0.6 percent, while all major european indices on Monday have opened 2021, with increases of between 1.1 and 2.8 percent. Danish C25 increases, thus, also by 1.7 percent.

The continued feeling is because according to the chief strategist in Nordea Andreas Østerheden that most of the past years, many uncertainties are evaporated.

“Many of the risk factors, which was built up in 2020, has vanished like dew before the sun. Trump signed coronakrisepakken between christmas and new year, there came a Brexit-agreement, and the vaccination is running,” he says.

Andreas Østerheden warns against the growing optimism.

“When the many risk factors from the last year is about to be gone, we are again in a world where we can be surprised. That can happen a lot, as we not have seen coming. And when everyone stands on one side of the boat, there is no big lapping of the waves to create fluctuations,” says chefstrategen.

The analysis is shared by Lars Skovgaard Andersen, who is investeringsstrateg in Danske Bank.

“I am concerned that so many are positive. When the sun is shining and not a cloud in the sky, you have to be extra careful,” he says.

There is still a risk

According to Andreas Østerheden is that in spite of Brexit-agreement, the roll-out of coronavacciner and a settled presidential election still risks and uncertainties, investors should keep an eye on.

“The power play between the UNITED states and China can easily flare up again, and even though we will soon have a new us president, yesterday Joe Biden also favor a hard line against China,” he says.

“And there is still a risk that something can go wrong in relation to the vaccination against corona. There may be more to come virusmutationer, which can cause it to take even longer,” says Andreas Østerheden.

Lars Skovgaard Andersen points out, however, that for the quick recovery of the economy in the spring can put a spoke in the wheel for the feeling.

“It can hit the stock markets, if it’s going to go too good and too fast with the vaccinations. This will mean that the economies open faster and stronger, which can get the long-term interest rates to rise more than expected. And then it will no longer be as attractive to have shares,” says investeringsstrategen and refer to the current low interest rates, which has made it more profitable to invest in shares.

“Sea a little bit of everything”

Danish stocks had a terrific year 2020, despite the dramatic fall at the society’s closure in march. On the first open market day continues the trend.

Monday increases Ørsted thus, with 5.5 percent, while also Jyske Bank, DSV and Simcorp have a terrific day with increases of respectively 5, 4 and 3.3 percent.

Still have Lars Skovgaard Andersen private investors to consider whether they only want to bet on Danish shares in the new year.

“It is time that you stop and look at what you have invested in. For many growth stocks, one should take care of a little on. 2021 is not the year to have too much of a kind, one should have a little bit of everything,” says investeringsstrategen:

“It is also not certain that you should only have Danish stocks. We do not have much industry and raw materials at home, but it is something that will enjoy really good of a normalization of the economy.”

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